Is Another Capitulation Day Looming In the Short-Term? What About Your Superannuation?

OK, so i read up on a lot of this stuff – the interaction of the human and the technical interests me.

Read this article recently: Capitulation Day Looms

Yeah, sure it’s a bit technical, but the main (edited) excerpt is:

We are now at the point where the bull-[sic]market rally is looking dead and buried and a resumption of the downtrend is about to occur.

Therefore we are about to see all trends aligned, from the short term to the long term trend and they are all pointing down.

The distribution of the past year is looking very tired…it looks very scary indeed.

If the market does crack under this 4,400 level then I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market swan dive to 3,900 in a matter of weeks.

It must be remembered that September is the worst month of the year for equity markets. This year is shaping up as a potential doozy with US economic figures continuing to fall off a cliff and now signs of real stress emerging in US Commercial Real Estate.

Without stimulus funny money driving the economy, we are seeing that real economic weakness lies behind the mirage. Bottom up and top down forecasts for earnings are still way too optimistic. When the penny drops, this market will be a lot lower in a flash.

It may be tonight or next week. But prepare for a sharp sell-off in the coming days.

Don’t ask me why I care, and why I keep talking about this stuff to people I know, even if I don’t know them well – but it’s here for your consideration anyway.

Not that my opinion need carry any real weight, but if I hadn’t already converted my super options into 100% cash a few months ago, I would certainly have done it by now.

And that’s my point: if you’re reading this and have a similar slightly uneasy feeling in your stomach as I do that, despite everyone’s best efforts, things are just not “recovering” in our particularly inter-linked global economy, then considering a call to your Super fund with your account number might be worth a go…do something about it, as, generally, you can.

That is: consider calling them and have a portion (your call), or even all, of your funds converted to cash. Easy. That way you can minimise stock and property losses. And, if things start to show genuinely show signs of pickup up again – sustainably! – another call will easily convert your funds back to a growth/less-defensive option.

Yes, consider taking your Super into your own hands, at least somewhat.

And if you think that the Fund Managers will just look after you, since you pay those pros to do exactly that, then reflect on why your fund lost some 25-50% of its value during the GFC, when everyone was caught off-guard scratching their heads, wondering what just happened and why; and what all that might mean for how the mainstream perceives the goings-on in its own sector, and the value of your Super…

…and consider that the GFC isn’t actually over….??

It’s quite easy for a portfolio to lose several percent value per day in a sell-off….just look at the post Sep-2007 figures! Mining and Banking stocks in particular (heavily weighted in Aussie Super Portfolios) have on a number of occasions lost several perecent in day, even for 2-3 days running, even just this year…so, yeah, it can happen very quickly…

Yep, that easy: a call, tell them what you want to do, and they can probably just do it over the phone.

It’s not Financial advice – just an acquaintance sharing with other similarly interested acquaintances.

Take it or leave it.




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